Statistics sent to cycling officers, people might be interested in a few snippets of data (gleaned from a number of different research documents) concerning Chinese motorisation and cycling. Car numbers & Cycle numbers The total amount of motorized vehicles in China increased to 42.09 million in 1997. Compared with 2.09 million in 1980, the average annual growth rate reached 19.91%. In 1990 there were 5 million motorised vehicles and 4 million cycles. Looking at the current figures (2002) for China, there are 16.09 million automobiles, compared with 19.20 million agricultural vehicles. Estimates of the number of bicycles range from 37.71 million (according to the Statistics Bureau) to 52.60 million (our study). Thus, a simple comparison in ownership shows that agricultural vehicles and bicycles far outnumber automobiles. Bicycle ownership has increased 11 fold from 1990 to 2000 compared to 3 times for automobiles. Currently China has around 28% of the world share of bicycles (cf 2% of the world's share of cars). Adding up the estimates by provincial capital indicated that the number of vehicles owned (in automobile terms) would reach 88.85 million by 2020. Of these, automobiles would number 56.07 million, up sharply by 3.5 times over 2000. Above all, private cars would number 33.64 million, up 5.4 times over 2000. Bicycles, too, are expected to exceed 150 million by 2020. Modal split The modal split for cycling in surveys up to 1997 was 49.5% (Beijing), 24% (Shanghai), Xian (33%), 75% (Tianjin) - the highest. But some of this data may already be out of date: Cycling share Wuhan 1987 35%, 2000 20%. Xian 1988 40% - 2000 25; Shanghai 1988 25% - 2001 32%. Policy: One of the policy approaches is to use the existing roadway network in the most efficient matter. From a capacity perspective cars are the least efficient users of road space. Compared to a single car, a roadway lane can carry 4-5 times more bicyclists, 8-10 times more pedestrians and 15-20 times more transit riders (Shen 1997). Despite these numbers, cities are beginning to restrict or discourage bicycle use. Lu et al. (1997) state that bicycles are poor users of road space, citing that bicycles account for only 20% of the person-km traveled in Shanghai, but use 40% of the road space; Because of these numbers, planners have decided to restrict bicyclists in the city center of Shanghai, giving the roads fully to cars and buses. This policy, combined with improved public transportation is expected to reduce bicycle traffic to 20% of its current level. Because bicycles are perceived as a less desirable mode and because they create challenging conflicts with auto traffic, there has been a concerted effort to shift bicyclists to transit modes. Many cities have begun to see reductions in bicycle mode share and increases in transit and auto mode share as they have invested heavily in transit and roadway infrastructure. Road Safety: Since motorization began to increase some two decades ago, road safety has been recognized as a major issue in China. During the period from 1975 to 1998, traffic fatalities increased 243 percent (Kopits and Cropper 2003). Currently, road accidents in China account for about 300 deaths per day (China Daily 2004). As with congestion, safety problems rise with the number of vehicle kilometers and the density of pedestrians and cyclists. Some 45 percent of traffic deaths in China are pedestrians and cyclists (Liu 2004). This is close to the share of all trips made in cities on foot or cycle. Currently, the fatality rate (deaths per mile of travel) is 30 times that of the United States, with over 100,000 deaths per year since 2001, many of which are pedestrians and bicyclists . A recent study has concluded that the major factor contributing to the high traffic fatality rate in China is drivers' negligence. Improper driving in China caused about 78.5 percent of total traffic fatalities (about 86,000 people) in 2003 (China Daily 2004). Air polllution Shanghai's concentration of NOx has been increasing gradually since 1995, from 51?g/m3 to 59?g/m3 in 1997, which is coincidentally parallel to the increase in Shanghai's vehicle population (Walsh 2003). In 1998, NOx and CO concentrations have exceeded the national standards in Beijing's high traffic areas. Within the Second Ring Road that surrounds the city center, NOx concentrations increased from 99?g/m3 in 1986 to 205?g/m3 in 1997. Obesity and travel to school Although the prevalence of overweight is relatively low in Chinese youth (4% in Chinese adolescents in 1993), it is considered an emerging problem. 79% of Chinese children owned cycles in this survey. For under 12s 85% M and 89% F actively commute to school, over 12s 77%M and 83% F actively commute to school (% cycling not actually given). We were also informed that it is not typical for Chinese children under 12 y to ride a bicycle by themselves; those under 12 y reporting commuting to school by bicycle likely rode on their parent's bicycle and therefore were not given active commuting credit.